Proud programs on hard times.

Other teams have fallen harder in terms of wins of losses, but in relative terms, no established program ended the last decade further from where it began than Florida State, which went from national championship mainstay — the ‘Noles played in three straight BCS title games from 1998-2000, the tail end of their 14-year run with at least 10 wins and a top-five finish in the polls — to perpetual ACC also-ran almost overnight. That path is well chronicled since FSU’s last conference championship in 2005, but with three disappointing 7-6 seasons and zero major bowl appearances in the last four years, the vast majority of today’s recruits literally cannot remember Florida State as a national power.

The transition to the Jimbo Fisher era will go down as the moment the sleeping giant either awoke to resume plundering the countryside or else permanently resigned itself to the status of another toppled dynasty whose best days are firmly in the past, well out of reach.

• What Went Wrong. For years, coordinator Mickey Andrews’ proud, punishing defense suffered opposite an inept offense, specifically a string of pedestrian quarterbacks that often seemed to be holding the entire team from its dominant birthright by themselves — Seminole QBs finished 68th or worse nationally in pass efficiency every year from 2004-08. Last year put the lie to that narrative, pitting poor, resourceful Christian Ponder (see below) against the persistent failings of by far the worst defense in the ACC. Andrews’ charges bottomed out as the league’s worst in rushing, pass efficiency and total defense, and just missed the cellar in scoring D, giving up at least 26 points in every ACC game. In one four-game stretch in October and November, one-time whipping boys Georgia Tech, N.C. State and Clemson all cracked 40 on at least 480 total yards.

At its best, FSU allowed just 17 points on 368 yards to South Florida, a game it still lost thanks to two 70-plus-yard completions and 154 yards rushing by a redshirt freshman quarterback in his first career start, against a unit led by seven senior starters. Et cetera.

Among many, many issues, the most glaring deficiency was the absence of the terrifying edge rusher that had been a mainstay of almost all of Andrews’ defenses for more than two decades — with the early exit of 2008 sack master Everette Brown (the 13th FSU defensive end drafted within the first four rounds since 1993, and the sixth to go in the first round), starting ends Kevin McNeil and Markus White had just two sacks apiece, forcing more blitzes to create the pressure the ‘Noles used to take for granted. And they still didn’t get much: Almost half of the team’s 26 sacks on the season came in two games, against Jacksonville State (7) and in the bowl win over West Virginia (5).

• What Went At Least Moderately Right. The mediocre record probably kept Ponder from the attention he deserved as one of the most productive and valuable quarterbacks in the country, though he came up short on would-be game-winning drives against Miami and Boston College and was so frustrated by his fourth interception in the loss at Clemson that he got himself knocked out for the rest of the season on the tackle. Prior to that, Ponder had put up three straight games with at least 340 yards passing with no interceptions against Boston College, Georgia Tech and North Carolina — and had to lead a major second half comeback against the Tar Heels to avoid going 0-3 in the same stretch.

Promisingly, the offense didn’t fall apart without Ponder down the stretch, discovering a running game and exceptional balance behind the new QB, redshirt freshman E.J. Manuel, en route to putting up 41, 29 and 33 points in wins over Wake Forest, Maryland and West Virginia. Things didn’t go so hot at Florida, not surprisingly, but after three straight low-scoring losses to Wake Forest, dropping big numbers on the proles again (especially with the backup quarterback at the helm) was a significant step for the trajectory of Jimbo Fisher’s offense.

• Changes, Building Blocks and Cautious Optimism. All the pieces are in place for the next big step on offense this fall — along with Ponder, Fisher gets back the top four running backs, three of the top four receivers and all five offensive linemen, who’ll be together as starters for the third year in a row. For the first time since longtime coordinator Mark Richt left to take over at Georgia before the 2001 Orange Bowl, the ‘Noles have every reason to expect production in the neighborhood of the chart-topping numbers the Kanell/Busby/Weinke-led attacks put up in the nineties heyday.

The defense isn’t as long on experience, and none of the four starters who returned particularly distinguished himself among last year’s collapse (for the first time in ages, FSU didn’t have a defender on the first team All-ACC defense, and both second-teamers, Dekoda Watson and Patrick Robinson, graduated). But its struggles to date haven’t been for lack of talent, that nebulous but all-important concept that remains at the core of Florida State’s past and future glory. The one aspect of the program that did not clearly drop off at the end of the Bowden era was recruiting, where the ‘Noles continued to finish among the best in the nation and well ahead of most of their peers in the ACC. With a fresh start under new coordinator Mark Stoops, the raw ingredients are certainly still on hand to produce a top-end unit. That extends to the team, generally: With Fisher firmly in control and Bowden’s uncertain status as figurehead no long looming over the program, everyone can breathe a little easier and just play.

• Target Date for Reacquisition of Mojo. Of course, FSU has remained among the top recruiters nationally throughout its decline, and all those blue-chip headliners have yet to produce a single top-20 season for the better part of a decade. As long as the talent is there, the odds will continue to favor a reversal of fortune sooner or later, and the in-house regime change makes 2010 as good a year as any.

Given the potential on offense — reasonable improvement from last year’s revival puts 450 yards/35 points per game well within the realm of possibility — and even a modest regression to the mean by the wretched defense, the conference championship is well within reach this fall, and anything short of nine wins and a spot in the final polls should go down as another stinging disappointment. Changes don’t come much bigger than a new head coach and defensive coordinator, but Fisher’s familiarity with the team over the last three years means there won’t be much of a grace period. If it doesn’t happen within the next three years, the persistent issues obviously ran much deeper than the increasingly shaky oversight of Bobby Bowden.

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Previously: Arizona State … Colorado … Michigan … Miami (Ohio).

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