As conference expansion talks have seemingly locked in on Missouri, West Virginia and Louisville, BYU — an early favorite in projections to the Big 12 — has been left out in the cold. According to coach Bronco Mendenhall, the Cougars’ faith is a big reason why.

As a Mormon-based institution, BYU has additional rules and stipulations that govern its athletics, among them an inflexible ban on games on Sunday. Faced with potential conflicts and culture clashes, several leagues — the Pac-12, Big 12, Big East — have only taken a cursory look before moving on.

Mendenhall expressed his frustration with the expansion process Tuesday night on KSL in Utah.

“(BYU is), by design, to be very unique and someone in a conference has to want that culture with our values,” Mendenhall said. “Not only all of our sports teams that are excellent, but they have to want a school that has the values that we have.

“Those that want us, fantastic. And if they don’t, I would rather stand alone. Then my job is to help lead the program to the point where you can’t be ignored any longer. That will accumulate over time through our record. That is just simply kind of the brutal facts of where it is.”

BYU broke off from the Mountain West last year, opting for independence in an attempt to earn greater revenue with its television partnership with ESPN and greater exposure and notoriety by playing more high-profile opponents. (And to avoid taking a backseat to its Pac-12-bound rival, Utah.) The Cougars have struggled some on the field, against the Utes in particular, but are still one of the more attractive options in terms of all sports and academics available.

Just a few weeks ago, BYU was reportedly being courted by the Big 12, which seemed like a good fit for a faith-based school.

“The Big 12 has already shown that they have some interest in already doing (taking a faith-based institution) with Baylor and they’ve just taken TCU,” Mendenhall said. “Unlike the Pac-12, which made it very clear that it did not want a religious-based school.

“I know one of the criteria’s they’re mentioning in talking about West Virginia is they were in the Top 25 four of the past five years, which I think our record is very similar. [BYU's record from 2006-10 was virtually identical to West Virginia's. — ed.] Our basketball program is certainly on par or better than the majority in the country and all of our sports. So, there comes this really unique issue, just to be very blunt, of culture and we have a very unique institution.”

But the uniqueness of BYU isn’t much of a selling point in the current game of musical chairs, and Mendenhall knows that if the university gets passed by in this round it could be awhile before it comes again. So he’s not shy to hitch BYU’s wagon to the nearest shining star, Boise State.

“All of these moves are revenue-driven, they’re TV rights driven and they are access driven to the highest level of bowl games that there are,” Mendenhall said. “You could certainly find yourself on the outside looking in as one of those teams, as we are now, that have to win every game. That is simply the way it is. Boise State finds themselves in a similar situation.

“It would make a lot of sense to me, if anyone wanted a partnership and wanted a natural rivalry to take us and Boise and put us in the league and you’d have a Mountain West imprint, so to speak, and you’d have two excellent football teams and I think people would be surprised at what would happen.”

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Graham Watson is on Facebook and Twitter: Follow her @Yahoo_Graham.

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Making the morning rounds.

• Oh, I think we can find room. Nobody came right out and said “They’re going to play,” but suspended LSU stars Tyrann Mathieu and Spencer Ware were back at practice Tuesday and looking for all the world like they’re going to be in the lineup against Alabama after sitting out last weekend’s obliteration of Auburn for allegedly failing a drug test. There’s still more than ten days to go, but if Mathieu and Ware are in the fold — along with a third suspend, nickel corner Tharold Simon — the only notable absence on either side on Nov. 5 will be LSU offensive lineman Josh Dworaczyk, out for the season with a knee injury since last month.

“If they continue to do the things that they’re doing, we would anticipate that they would play (against the Crimson Tide),” said coach Les Miles. “We’re not going to live in deadlines in any way. We’re practicing and preparing them to play and operating along that way. We’re going to practice them and plan on using them.” [Baton Rouge Advocate]

• Don’t let the door hit you. To the surprise of no one, USC running back Dillon Baxter is officially off the team to “focus on his academics,” likely ending his trajectory from the second coming of Reggie Bush out of high school to persona non grata less than two years into his career. Before the season, Baxter was talking about his improved maturity as a sophomore and relishing his opportunity to seize the starting tailback job with senior Marc Tyler on indefinite suspension. By last weekend, Tyler was back atop of the depth chart alongside Curtis McNeal, hyped freshman George Farmer had been added to the mix as the resident “dual threat” option and Baxter was skipping the trip to Notre Dame altogether after failing to see the field in the Trojans’ wins over Arizona and Cal.

“The decision has been made for Dillon Baxter to focus on his academics,” coach Lane Kiffin said in a statement. ”As he does so, he will not be part of our football program.  However, we will continue to support him with our academic services department. There will be no further comment regarding this from me or any member of our program.” For what it’s worth, Baxter’s stepfather said Tuesday that the subject of a transfer hasn’t come up. “He loves USC,” Anthony Mooney told the Orange County Register. “He respects the staff. He wants to be a Trojan.” [USCTrojans.com, Orange County Register]

• Let the Mtn eat cake. As a multitude of sources added to the chorus confirming West Virginia’s defection from the Big East to the Big 12 Tuesday — and with it the likely demise of the Big East as a major football conference — Big East officials strongly denied reports that they were planning to meet with Mountain West and Conference USA commissioners in New York to discuss joining the forthcoming Mtn/C-USA merger to forge a “super conference” of up to 32 schools. “We are not part of any meeting with those two conferences,” a Big East spokesman told the New York Daily News (“in no uncertain terms”), despite the leverage a merger could offer toward the Big East’s first priority: Keeping an automatic bid to a BCS bowl game.

In the meantime, Boise State president Bob Kustra confirmed reports that he met with Big East officials in Washington, D.C., over the weekend, but said the conversation was “informational in nature” and Boise “continues to consider and evaluate its options” — not just boilerplate when one of those options (the Big East) is looking less and less viable by the week. [New York Daily News, Charleston Daily Mail, Charleston Gazette, Idaho Statesman]

• I’m just mad about Kapron. Notre Dame defensive end Kapron Lewis-Moore is out for the rest of the season with an MCL injury, joining fellow senior Ethan Johnson on the injured list and likely forcing the Irish to start two true freshman ends Saturday against Navy — the same Navy whose slippery triple-option attack has gashed ND in Midshipmen wins three of the last four years. Lewis-Moore has started 29 games over the last three years and should be back with a fifth year of eligibility in 2012. [IrishIllustrated.com]

In other injury news… Washington State quarterback Jeff Tuel remains in limbo after reinsuring the same shoulder he hurt in the Cougars’ season opener. [Seattle Times] … UCLA safety Tony Dye is out for the season due to “stingers,” and will likely have to request a medical redshirt to return next year. [L.A. Daily News] … And Cincinnati cornerback Dominique Battle is out for the season with a torn ACL that will require surgery later this week. [Cincinnati Enquirer]

Quickly… Missouri may be forced to remain in the Big 12 for one more year in 2012-13. … Cliff Harris plans to fight his latest traffic citations. … Jerry Kill parlays Minnesota‘s ongoing nightmare of a season into a longer contract worth more money. … Florida loses a pair of former high school teammates in search of more playing time. … South Carolina holds a team meeting to remind itself it’s still in the driver’s seat in the SEC East. … And Jeff Sagarin’s computer ranks Boston College behind Harvard, along with pretty much everyone else with a team.

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Making the morning rounds.

• What was he thinking? Part one. USC coach Lane Kiffin said Sunday he was “shocked” that Notre Dame sat on all three timeouts in the fourth quarter of a 31-17 Trojan win, which ended with USC running off the final 6:48 on ten straight runs by tailback Curtis McNeal. “I didn’t know what was going on,” Kiffin said. “Obviously we were happy. I was scared they were going to call them, and I didn’t know what we were going to do kicker-wise. … The game was far from over. But I’m not complaining.” Linebacker Chris Galippo was somewhat more straightforward: “They just quit. That’s what Notre Dame football is all about. They’re not anything like ‘SC.”

“I don’t know if that’s the case,” Kelly said in response to Galippo. “To the victors go the spoils. We probably would have said the same thing last year [after Notre Dame's upset win over USC in Los Angeles]. How we evaluate our players, we didn’t play the kind of football we wanted to play.” [Orange County Register, Chicago Tribune]

• What was he thinking? Part two. In other late time-out news, the Cleveland Plain-Dealer’s Doug Lesmerises defended Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema’s decision to use two timeouts on defense in the final minute of the Badgers’ loss to Michigan State, giving the Spartans time to pick up an additional first down and throw up the game-winning Hail Mary as time expired. “At that point, Bielema was operating with what he should have thought was one of the best teams, and certainly one of the best offenses, in the nation,” Lesmerises writes. “Getting quarterback Russell Wilson the ball with any time on the clock would have been worth it. The Badgers were too good to play scared and settle for overtime.

” ‘We were going for the win,’ Bielema said afterward, and really, that’s all that needed to be said.” [Cleveland Plain-Dealer]

• D-Day Rock M-Day. Today could mark the beginning of the end for Missouri and the Big 12, according to PowerMizzou.com, which cites three separate, anonymous sources who say university chancellor Brady Deaton will announce the Tigers’ official withdrawal from the conference at a Big 12 Board of Directors meeting in Dallas. On Friday, Mizzou’s Board of Curators authorized Deaton to act on conference realignment and execute all relevant contracts with a new league — presumably the SEC — and Deaton is scheduled to attend this afternoon’s meeting in person.

“On Saturday, and again today, I’ve talked to all sorts of people familiar with the situation both at Missouri and elsewhere,” wrote the Kansas City Star’s Mike DeArmond on Sunday, “and every single one anticipates Missouri and the SEC will announce Mizzou as the 14th member of the SEC at some point this week.” [PowerMizzou.com, Kansas City Star]

• One of us, one of us. In somewhat less solid speculation, the Big East is reportedly being asked to consider joining the forthcoming Mountain West-Conference USA merger to create a sprawling superconference incorporating between 28 and 32 teams. According to a document (origin unknown) obtained by the Boston Globe, the plan would divide the country into four seven or eight-team divisions — the West, Mountain, Central and Big East — whose winners would then stage a mini-playoff for the league’s automatic bid to the BCS. The Big East would actually consider this in order to ensure it keeps its automatic bid to the BCS.

Notably absent from both the 28 and 32-team versions of the plan? West Virginia, which is presumed to be first in line to replace Missouri in the Big 12. [Boston Globe]

• Tate calls it a year. Maryland linebacker Kenny Tate, an All-ACC pick last year as a safety and likely a future draft pick, will undergo season-ending surgery for an undisclosed injury and seek a medical hardship to return for a fifth year in 2012. Tate led the team in tackles through four games but has missed the last three — all Maryland losses — for reasons the school isn’t clarifying.

“It is certainly a blow to our team to lose a player and leader of Kenny’s caliber, but we want to do what’s in his best interest,” said coach Randy Edsall, who expects Tate to miss six to nine months. “Our medical staff determined that surgery was the best way to proceed so that’s what we are going to do.” [Washington Post]

• Tragedy. As rumored on Saturday, the body of an Akron student was found inside the university’s stadium on Saturday morning, an apparent suicide. A spokesman for Akron said the body was found in the stadium’s bleachers around 10 a.m., but declined to release his identity or any details of the ongoing investigation. The Zips’ game against Ohio kicked off as scheduled at 3 p.m. the same afternoon, ending in a 37-20 Ohio win. [Associated Press]

Quickly… USC running back Dillon Baxter may have missed the Notre Dame game to be with his girlfriend as she was giving birth. … Three new injuries Saturday could leave Virginia Tech‘s defense without five opening-day starters for Saturday’s trip to Duke. … Police responding to a noise complaint use a stun gun on two Montana players. … ACC officials teach Florida State an incorrect lesson about punt returns. … Steve Spurrier calls his flap with local writer Ron Morris “history” and says Morris will be allowed at regular press conferences. … Virginia Tech adds another gravestone to its cemetery of road wins over ranked teams. … FX had had some minor technical difficulties at the start of the Oklahoma State-Missouri game. … And Bill Blankenship sings OMC.

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Snap judgments on Saturday’s best.

LOGISTICS • Stanford‘s Offense.
Opting for a leisurely night for quarterback Andrew Luck, Stanford successful deployed its entire backfield en route to a school-record 446 yards rushing, sending three different backs over 90 yards on fewer than 15 carries apiece in a 65-21 obliteration of Washington. For the game, the Cardinal broke seven runs covering at least 20 yards, averaged a hair over 10 yards per carry and scored on ten of eleven offensive possessions.

GEOMETRY • Keith Nichol, Michigan State.
Not only did Nichol solve one of the toughest angles in sports on a last-second, Hail Mary tip against Wisconsin: He also got the angle on instant replay after dragging linebacker Mike Taylor just far enough over the plane — for just long enough — to convince officials to overturn their original call on the field and award the Spartans the winning touchdown in a 37-31 thriller.

EFFICIENCY • Arkansas.
The Razorbacks effectively took a half-day at Ole Miss, rolling into the office a little before halftime but ultimately getting the same amount of work done in a 29-24 win. The sad-sack Rebels went ahead 17-0 midway through the second quarter, at which point they’d held the ball for a little over 18 minutes to Arkansas’ five and outgained the Razorbacks 156 yards to 33. From there, Arkansas rolled up more than 400 yards en route to 29 straight points in less than two full quarters.

Honorable Mention: Alabama and Virginia Tech both found themselves knotted in a pair of tight, low-scoring defensive slugfests at the half of would-be blowouts against Tennessee and Boston College, respectively, before combining to outscore the Vols and Eagles 55 to 7 in the second half.

DIPLOMACY • Case Keenum, Houston.
A few days after Marshall‘s defense suggested it wouldn’t mind knocking him out of the game, Keenum responded in appropriate, measured fashion, dropping 376 yards and six touchdowns on the Thundering Herd en route to a 63-28 incineration that pushed the Cougars’ record to 7-0. Keenum also set a new Division I record for total yards in a career, passing Hawaii‘s Timmy Chang with 16,910 and counting.

MATHEMATICS • Oklahoma and Texas Tech.
Somehow, the Sooners and Red Raiders managed to cram 34 full offensive possessions into a single regulation game, good for 1,108 yards and 79 points on 176 plays in a 41-38 Tech win. That’s an average of about 1 minute, 46 seconds per possession, thanks in part to seven touchdown drives covering two minutes or less.

MODERN DANCE • Stedman Bailey, West Virginia.
Most of Syracuse‘s 49-23 upset over West Virginia on Friday night consisted of Mountaineer quarterback Geno Smith being knocked around by surprisingly relentless Orange pass rush. The Mountaineers were able to achieve a brief moment of grace, though, on the first of Smith’s two touchdown passes, the result of an impressive over-the-shoulder catch and sideline tap-dance by Bailey:

The rest of Smith’s night: Four sacks, two picks and a one-way ticket to the chaos that is the Big East race.

ROBOTICS • Dominique Davis, East Carolina.
The Pirates’ version of the Spreadatron-3000™ was perfectly calibrated for Navy‘s defense, connecting on 26 consecutive passes to open the game in an eventual 38-35 ECU win — eclipsing the previous record for consecutive completions set by the Tee Martin and Aaron Rodgers models in 1998 and 2004, respectively. Combined with ten consecutive completions to close last week’s win over Memphis, Davis also broke Rodgers’ record with 36 straight completions over two games.

FINANCE • Curtis McNeal, USC.
Adhering to Alec Baldwin’s eternal mandate — “Always Be Closing” — the 5-foot-7, 180-pound McNeal carried the ball ten consecutive times for 47 yards on the final ten plays of USC’s 31-17 win over Notre Dame, milking 6:48 off the clock to finish off the Fighting Irish in South Bend. The closing spurt left McNeal with 118 yards on 4.9 per carry in his first career start, arguably establishing him as the Trojans’ new go-to back for… well, at least for the first series of next week’s visit from Stanford.

ENTREPRENEURSHIP • Kourtnei Brown, Clemson.
The Tigers had more than enough offense to take care of North Carolina without any additional help, but Brown insisted on creating value by taking an interception and a fumble back for touchdowns in a 59-28 rout — Clemson’s first and second defensive touchdowns of the year.

HUMANITARIANISM • Chip Kelly, Oregon.
The Ducks scored four touchdowns in 22 offensive snaps in the first quarter and returned an interception for a touchdown to take a 35-0 lead in the second at Colorado, at which point Kelly declared mercy and called off the dogs in an eventual 45-2 rout. Oregon had 291 yards of total offense in the first frame, and 236 yards the rest of the game.

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LSU 45, Auburn 10.
Lord knows, LSU has always had talent. Frightening talent. But the Tigers have lived for so long as the kind of team that scrapes by for a living — more than half of their SEC wins from 2008 to 2010 came by a touchdown or less — surviving by whatever means necessary almost seemed to be part of the weekly gameplan. It took three fourth quarter comebacks to get this team to 11 wins last year. Hell, it took four fourth quarter comebacks for the 2007 team to make the BCS Championship Game, not to mention the two games it lost that season in overtime. Under Les Miles, that’s how LSU rolls.

That’s how it has rolled, anyway. Maybe it’s the new offensive coordinator. Maybe it’s a more experienced, mature lineup coming together as upperclassmen. Maybe it’s a looser attitude from a more entrenched head coach. Maybe it’s a combination of all of the above. But the Tigers flipped some kind of switch between the end of the 2010 season and the beginning of 2011. The result is an absolute nightmare.

And once again, the catalyst for nationwide tremors is the ongoing emergence of an offense that seemed to spend years keeping its blue-chip athletes as close to the vest as possible. No one is particularly surprised by the dominance on the other side: Today, the defense did exactly what it was expected to do to Auburn‘s first-time starting quarterback, Clint Moseley, sacking him six times and returning an interception for a touchdown in the third quarter, a series of scenes right out of the “Inexperienced Quarterback In a Tough Environment” script. Auburn punted or turned the ball over on eight of its first nine possessions.

By the time Ron Brooks hit paydirt on the pick-six, though, the extra padding hardly mattered. The offense had just turned in its fourth touchdown in as many possessions, the rout was old news and the home crowd was already calling for Alabama on the other side of the coming bye week.

With 45 points today, the Tigers have scored at least 35 in seven of their first eight games, a mark they hit just three times in 26 games in 2009-10 combined. With a pair of touchdown grabs covering 42 and 46 yards in the second quarter, Rueben Randle alone has more 40-plus-yard receptions (7) than the entire team had in 2010. As preposterous as it would have seemed at the beginning of the year, with three more scoring passes and no interceptions, senior quarterbacks Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson remain stewards of the most efficient passing game in the SEC. Overall, the offense has now gone five full games without a turnover.

At this point, “momentum” is irrelevant: Going into the most anticipated regular season game of this year or almost any other, LSU is legitimately dominant. It hasn’t been anything less than dominant from the opening kickoff of opening night. Oregon, West Virginia, Florida, Tennessee, Auburn — all speed bumps en route to Tuscaloosa. If the stage for Nov. 5 was already set but for the hype, the Tigers played their role to the hilt.

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Perusing the weekly lines for a straight-up shocker or two — for entertainment only, of course. This week’s guest: Spencer Hall, of Every Day Should Be Saturday and SBN.

CHRIS BROWN, Smart Football and Grantland: Washington (+20) over Stanford.
I don’t feel great about this pick, but Sarkisian’s Huskies have steadily improved over the season and UW quarterback Keith Price leads by far the best opponent Stanford has seen — as of today, none of the victims on the front half of the Cardinal’s schedule has a winning record. Stanford just hasn’t been challenged, and I simply think they won’t be expecting the Huskies to come out gunning or to outplay them early. If the Cardinals get a lead they should be able to strangle and bludgeon Washington, but if Washington gets out early — which I think it will — I think it’ll be a longer evening than Andrew Luck is used to.

Bonus Pick: Louisiana Tech (+6½) over Utah State. Because why not?

GRAHAM WATSON: Missouri (+7.5) over Oklahoma State.
A lot of pundits have called this a trap game for the 6-0 Cowboys, and while I’m not sure about it being a trap, I do think Missouri has the offense to keep pace with an Oklahoma State team that tends to play very little defense. However, the Tigers can’t get into a track meet with the Cowboys. They need to slow the game down, run the ball against an Oklahoma run defense allowing 176.7 yards per game, and keep the ball out of the hands of the Oklahoma State offense. Easier said than done.

Missouri fancies itself as a quick-strike offense, so slowing the game down won’t come easily, especially with pressure from the home crowd to score quickly and score often. The Tigers also need to limit turnovers. Mizzou had three giveaways against a lackluster Iowa State team last week, and turnovers contributed to their loss to Kansas State. Oklahoma State ranks second nationally in turnover margin, so that could be a major turning point in the game.

MATT HINTON: N.C. State (+5½) over Virginia.
Virginia is coming off its biggest win in two years under coach Mike London, a 24-21 upset over previously unbeaten Georgia Tech that moved the Cavaliers two games above .500 in October (4-2) for the first time since 2007. In four games against FBS competition, N.C. State is 1-3 and allowing 37 points per game. The Wolfpack also remain unusually banged up on defense, and without their best running back.

Before stunning the Yellow Jackets, though, the same Cavaliers needed a furious fourth quarter comeback to win at Indiana, lost to Southern Miss at home and had to hold off a two-point conversion in overtime to beat Idaho. Thursday night debacle at Cincinnati notwithstanding, N.C. State has scored at least 27 points in every other game, has a quarterback with a legit arm (Mike Glennon) and a legit target in T.J. Graham. When in doubt, a second-class ACC team basking in a brief turnaround in its fortunes is never a bad one to bet against.

SPENCER HALL, Every Day Should Be Saturday and SBN: Maryland (+18) over Florida State.
You go right ahead and laugh at Randy Edsall. You can’t hurt a man with nothing to lose, and you certainly can’t hurt a team that has been on the verge of beating someone clearly better than they are for the past two weeks in close losses to Georgia Tech and Clemson.

If anything should reassure you about this pick consider this: Which team will actually attempt to do things on offense? Florida State? That’s right, and that makes FSU the team that loses by shooting itself in the foot. This is the ACC. We didn’t make the rules. We just observed and wrote them down as they appeared.

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A snapshot of the remaining unbeaten teams at the turn, and how they can stay that way. Today: 7-0 Clemson.

• How they got here. By scoring a lot of points, mainly: The Tigers hung 38 on Auburn, 35 on Florida State, 36 on Boston College and 56 last week in a come-from-behind, 56-45 win at Maryland that featured 14 touchdowns and more than 1,000 yards of total offense. Sophomore quarterback Tajh Boyd and freshman receiver Sammy Watkins needed roughly three weeks in the same huddle to ascend to the ranks of elite pass-catch combos residing outside the state of Oklahoma.

But the most impressive triumph to date belonged to the defense in a 23-3 upset at Virginia Tech on Oct. 1, where the offense launched eight punts, went three-and-out four times in the second half alone and was held dramatically below its season averages for yards and points. That was burning the barn down compared to the Hokies, who failed to score a touchdown at home for the first time since September of 1995. It was also Clemson’s third win over a ranked team in as many weeks, after dropping eleven of its last twelve.

• Target Date. Georgia Tech gacked up its 6-0 start Saturday in a 24-21 flop at Virginia, but the Yellow Jackets’ triple-option attack remains the ACC equivalent of Russian Roulette: Any moment can be an opposing defense’s last. Clemson takes its shot on Oct. 29, in Atlanta, where the Jackets have averaged 46 points in four games and the Tigers have dropped three in a row.

• Traps and other caveats. The ACC takes a lot of heat for its terrible BCS record and general failure to produce an elite national contender, but you can’t beat it for parity: No ACC team has finished a perfect regular season since Florida State forfeited its deed to the league a decade ago, easily the longest streak of any of the six major conferences. The last ACC team to make it to 7-0, Matt Ryan-led Boston College in 2007, ultimately dropped two straight games to unranked teams to open November; the last one before that, Phillip Rivers-led N.C. State in 2002, dropped three straight to unranked teams to open November. The only team to run the table in conference play in the last ten years, Virginia Tech in 2010, only got there after dropping its home opener to an FCS school.

At least the Tigers are beyond that. But given their recent history with big opportunities in front of them — see 2006, 2007 and 2009 — there’s no one who doesn’t believe they can lose any of the last five games on the schedule.

• Why they’ll run the table. Georgia Tech is still putting up slightly better numbers for the moment, but Clemson has the league’s most balanced, explosive offense, countering Boyd’s array of targets with a soon-to-be 1,000-yard rusher (Andre Ellington) at the head of an attack that still keeps it on the ground a solid majority of the time. The Tigers have hit at least 35 points and easily exceeded 400 yards in every game but one, and you won’t find me quibbling with any aspect of a 20-point win in Blacksburg.

• Why they won’t. On the other hand, the defense that showed up at Virginia Tech is the same defense that was ripped for 27 non-garbage-time points by Wofford, and for 435 yards on seven yards per snap by Auburn, and for 336 yards passing by a first-time starter for Florida State, and now for 45 points on 468 yards at Maryland. Going into Atlanta with one of the league’s tenth-ranked defense against the run is like sending up a bunch of balloons next to an archery exhibition. (I know: First pistols, now bows and arrows… it’s a dangerous offense with a lot of ways to hurt you, is what I’m trying to say.)

• Odds of a perfect finish: 1 in 5. If trips to Georgia Tech and South Carolina are roughly 50/50 propositions, the prospects break down like so: There’s a 25-percent chance Clemson is going to come out of those two games 2-0, a 25-percent chance they’re going to be 2-0 and a 50-percent chance they’re going to be 1-1.

When you account for the additional threats presented by North Carolina, Wake Forest, N.C. State and a rematch with either Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, 20-percent is frankly kind of generous. If the Tigers somehow survive that minefield and wind up playing a three-loss Big East champ in the Orange Bowl, they’ll have every right to feel snubbed.

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A snapshot of the remaining unbeaten teams at the turn, and how they can stay that way. Today: 7-0 Clemson.

• How they got here. By scoring a lot of points, mainly: The Tigers hung 38 on Auburn, 35 on Florida State, 36 on Boston College and 56 last week in a come-from-behind, 56-45 win at Maryland that featured 14 touchdowns and more than 1,000 yards of total offense. Sophomore quarterback Tajh Boyd and freshman receiver Sammy Watkins needed roughly three weeks in the same huddle to ascend to the ranks of elite pass-catch combos residing outside the state of Oklahoma.

But the most impressive triumph to date belonged to the defense in a 23-3 upset at Virginia Tech on Oct. 1, where the offense launched eight punts, went three-and-out four times in the second half alone and was held dramatically below its season averages for yards and points. That was burning the barn down compared to the Hokies, who failed to score a touchdown at home for the first time since September of 1995. It was also Clemson’s third win over a ranked team in as many weeks, after dropping eleven of its last twelve.

• Target Date. Georgia Tech gacked up its 6-0 start Saturday in a 24-21 flop at Virginia, but the Yellow Jackets’ triple-option attack remains the ACC equivalent of Russian Roulette: Any moment can be an opposing defense’s last. Clemson takes its shot on Oct. 29, in Atlanta, where the Jackets have averaged 46 points in four games and the Tigers have dropped three in a row.

• Traps and other caveats. The ACC takes a lot of heat for its terrible BCS record and general failure to produce an elite national contender, but you can’t beat it for parity: No ACC team has finished a perfect regular season since Florida State forfeited its deed to the league a decade ago, easily the longest streak of any of the six major conferences. The last ACC team to make it to 7-0, Matt Ryan-led Boston College in 2007, ultimately dropped two straight games to unranked teams to open November; the last one before that, Phillip Rivers-led N.C. State in 2002, dropped three straight to unranked teams to open November. The only team to run the table in conference play in the last ten years, Virginia Tech in 2010, only got there after dropping its home opener to an FCS school.

At least the Tigers are beyond that. But given their recent history with big opportunities in front of them — see 2006, 2007 and 2009 — there’s no one who doesn’t believe they can lose any of the last five games on the schedule.

• Why they’ll run the table. Georgia Tech is still putting up slightly better numbers for the moment, but Clemson has the league’s most balanced, explosive offense, countering Boyd’s array of targets with a soon-to-be 1,000-yard rusher (Andre Ellington) at the head of an attack that still keeps it on the ground a solid majority of the time. The Tigers have hit at least 35 points and easily exceeded 400 yards in every game but one, and you won’t find me quibbling with any aspect of a 20-point win in Blacksburg.

• Why they won’t. On the other hand, the defense that showed up at Virginia Tech is the same defense that was ripped for 27 non-garbage-time points by Wofford, and for 435 yards on seven yards per snap by Auburn, and for 336 yards passing by a first-time starter for Florida State, and now for 45 points on 468 yards at Maryland. Going into Atlanta with one of the league’s tenth-ranked defense against the run is like sending up a bunch of balloons next to an archery exhibition. (I know: First pistols, now bows and arrows… it’s a dangerous offense with a lot of ways to hurt you, is what I’m trying to say.)

• Odds of a perfect finish: 1 in 5. If trips to Georgia Tech and South Carolina are roughly 50/50 propositions, the prospects break down like so: There’s a 25-percent chance Clemson is going to come out of those two games 2-0, a 25-percent chance they’re going to be 2-0 and a 50-percent chance they’re going to be 1-1.

When you account for the additional threats presented by North Carolina, Wake Forest, N.C. State and a rematch with either Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, 20-percent is frankly kind of generous. If the Tigers somehow survive that minefield and wind up playing a three-loss Big East champ in the Orange Bowl, they’ll have every right to feel snubbed.

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Matt Hinton is on Facebook and Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.

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Perusing the weekly lines for a straight-up shocker or two — for entertainment only, of course.

MATT HINTON: Ohio State (+3½) over Illinois.
The Buckeyes’ Jekyll-and-Hyde routine at Nebraska may have left them reeling with most of their usual goals — a Big Ten championship, a BCS bid, a 10-win season — effectively off the table, but it also left them with an opportunity: Before freshman quarterback Braxton Miller‘s exit in the third quarter, the offense seemed to have found an identity it can live with for the rest of the season, and maybe win a few games with. Miller is expected to start in Champaign, sore ankle notwithstanding, and with the Wisconsin death machine steamrolling into Columbus next week, this looks like a drop-dead point for OSU to salvage anything resembling a successful season.

Besides, how comfortable are we really with the idea of the Illini matching their best start since the early days of the Eisenhower administration with Ron Zook on the sideline? I whiffed on Illinois as my upset victim a few weeks back, by the slimmest of margins, but at some point the time has to be right.

Bonus pick! Mississippi State (+3) over South Carolina. Mississippi State is a dramatically better team at home, South Carolina may be distracted this week by inner turmoil and the SEC West still owns the East. The Bulldogs need this kind of win to restore some of the preseason luster that’s been missing since opening night.

CHRIS BROWN, Smart Football and Grantland: Wake Forest (+7) over Virginia Tech.
The Hokies’ 38-35 win over Miami last week was one of the most entertaining games of the season, but it revealed some disturbing trends: Virginia Tech’s “Lunch Pail” defense gave up over 500 yards of total offense, and mistake-prone ‘Cane quarterback Jacory Harris looked stunningly efficient, throwing for 267 and three scores and no picks, while Miami tailback Lamar Miller churned out 166 yards on 9.2 per carry. This a week after being throttled at home by Clemson — and Virginia Tech is a few timely Logan Thomas miracles away from losing both games.

While Wake was significantly aided in its victory over Florida State by five FSU turnovers, the Demon Deacons still handled business and this game is in Winston-Salem. Every few seasons Jim Grobe seems to put together a team that can shock some people, and this season looks to be it.

GRAHAM WATSON: Baylor (+9.5) over Texas A&M.
The Aggies’ terrible secondary, currently allowing an NCAA-worst 336.8 yards per game, welcomes Robert Griffin III, owner of the nation’s best completion and touchdown percentages, and Kendall Wright, the national leader in touchdown receptions, in what has the makings of a major, extremely high-scoring upset by the Bears. Even though Baylor has only beaten the Aggies twice since 1985, this is a potent offense that has more than enough firepower ability to create one of those second-half comebacks that have plagued A&M all season.

This week’s guest…
STEWART MANDEL, Sports Illustrated: Virginia (+7) over Georgia Tech.
It may be crazy to put faith in a Virginia team last seen squeaking by Idaho at home, 21-20. But it seems like the Yellow Jackets’ off-the-charts offense has been regressing back toward more normal outputs since they entered conference play. They’ve played just two road games, at 1-4 Middle Tennessee State, the other a closer-than-it-should-have-been win at N.C. State. Two key elements work in the Cavaliers’ favor: a) The all-important bye week to prepare for the triple option, statistically proven to be Paul Johnson’s kryptonite. And b) It’s Al Groh’s return to Charlottesville. Enough said.

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Matt Hinton is on Facebook and Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.
• Follow Stewart Mandel @slmandel.
• Follow Chris Brown @smartfootball.
• Follow Graham Watson @Yahoo_Graham.

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A weekly primer.

GAME OF THE CENTURY OF THE WEEK
OKLAHOMA (-10½) vs. TEXAS • Noon ET, ABC.
What’s at stake: Most directly, the driver’s seat for the Big 12 championship, which Oklahoma currently possesses (along with undefeated Oklahoma State) and Texas can hijack by moving to 5-0. Less tangibly, the Longhorns are another hurdle for Oklahoma to clear to remain at the front of the pack nationally. And most intriguingly, Texas faces the ultimate gauge for measuring just how far its rebuilding project has come — and how far it still has to go — since handing over the offense to a handful of the freshest faces on campus.

Oh: And hate, of course. One-hundred and nine years of deep-fried hate.

Oklahoma wants: The Sooners are going to do what they always do: Throw it early, often and to every eligible member of the offense, at maximum speed. As usual, OU is averaging more plays per game (82.5) than any other offense in the country except Oklahoma State, and seems to have a found a little rhythm offensively since surviving a slugfest at Florida State — Landry Jones has gone well over 400 yards passing with multiple touchdown passes in back-to-back games, five of them to senior Ryan Broyles alone.

Texas’ secondary has been excellent, statistically, but also features a cornerback rotation consisting exclusively of freshmen and sophomores who have yet to encounter a quarterback or an overall attack with anywhere near the firepower coming at them in the Cotton Bowl. Oklahoma hasn’t been quite as fast out of the gate this year at it was at times in 2010, but the faster it moves against a group as green as the Longhorns, the more likely it is to leave them shellshocked before they know what hit them.

Texas wants: The usual line for any double-digit underdog facing a fast-moving, high-flying offense is to “shorten the game,” and the Longhorns will certainly rely heavily on a pair of true freshmen — 225-pound workhorse Malcolm Brown and run-oriented quarterback David Ash — to move the chains, keep the running game viable, limit Oklahoma’s opportunities with the ball, etc. Obviously they can’t afford to turn the ball over.

But Texas also has to score, and a startling number of its big plays over the last three games have come via some brand of trickery: Reverses, reverse passes, reverse throwbacks, tailbacks running out of the Wildcat — you name it, first-year offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin has it somewhere in the bag, as Oklahoma knows all too well.

This is the kind of game where that bag gets emptied, and the Longhorns will need a quick, “cheap” strike or two to keep pace.

Constants: Landry Jones will throw for 300-plus yards with multiple touchdowns. … Neither offense will run with any consistency. … One of Texas’ many key underclassmen will make a crucial, potentially game-changing mistake.

Variables: How many attempts will it take rack up Jones’ big stat line? … Can Texas move consistently enough to score with a minimum of razzle-dazzle? …

The Pick: I like Texas: The combination of Harsin in the press box and the extreme youth movement on offense has rejuvenated a program that was running on empty at the end of last season. The last two-and-a-half games with Ash and Case McCoy at the controls have looked and “felt” like vintage Texas. But expecting the Baby ‘Horns to stand toe-to-toe with a serious, veteran national contender that has this game circled on its schedule, too, is asking way too much, too soon.

UT may connect on a few big plays, may push the Sooners well into the second half and may leave Longhorn fans feeling that much better about the ship’s new course. But they’re not nearly far enough along yet to convert a moral victory into a real one.

AUBURN at ARKANSAS (-10) • 7 p.m. ET, ESPN.
I’m not generally the kind of critic who puts a lot of stock in memes like “this team just finds a way to win,” considering that they’re synonymous with other, less celebrated tendencies such as “allowing Utah State and Mississippi State to go well over 400 yards and 30 points apiece.” So far, the most salient characteristic of Auburn’s 4-1 start — besides dramatic, last-second victory snatched from the jaws of defeat — is turrible defense: Even after last week’s vastly improved effort at South Carolina, the Tigers rank dead last in the SEC in every significant defensive category, which is the last thing you want to hear when Bobby Petrino is involved short of your boss telling you “I just got off the phone with Bobby Petrino’s agent…”

Auburn’s fledgling defense may be on the upswing as the year goes on, but coming off a ridiculous, record-setting barrage in last week’s comeback win over Texas A&M, Tyler Wilson‘s stat line at home should look a lot more like Tajh Boyd’s dominant afternoon against the Tigers on Sept. 17 than Stephen Garcia’s latest flop last week.

FLORIDA at LSU (-13) • 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.
Based on what we saw last week against Alabama, Florida probably deserves to be a double-digit underdog regardless of who’s playing quarterback. Faced with a first-rate defense for the first time this year, the Gators managed to strike for one big play against ‘Bama before being forcibly beaten back into their shell, and with senior John Brantley sitting this one out after 18 consecutive starts, I’d be surprised if they even made it that far before the beating begins in Baton Rouge. With Brantley out and a true freshman in under the most hostile possible circumstances, the Gators should be satisfied just to get out of Death Valley in one piece.

GEORGIA (-2) at TENNESSEE • 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2.
Tennessee’s offense has looked so good in three wins — 40-point efforts in easy blowouts over Montana, Cincinnati and Buffalo — that it’s easy to overlook just how stagnant and one-dimensional the Vols were a couple weeks back at Florida, where they wound up with —9 yards rushing for the game and a long gain of ten. Georgia hasn’t been as explosive in the passing game, but it hasn’t had to be: The Bulldogs have found a legitimate, every-down workhorse in freshman tailback Isaiah Crowell — he’s over 100 total yards in four straight games — and Aaron Murray is still as reliable as any quarterback in the SEC. So is Tyler Bray, for that matter, but with the SEC schedule in full swing, the Vols have to get him some steady help in the backfield.

OHIO STATE at NEBRASKA (-11) • 8 p.m. ET, ABC.
As bad as the Cornhusker defense was in last week’s 48-17 debacle at Wisconsin — and it was epically bad, yielding seven extended touchdown drives in nine Badger possessions and forcing coach Bo Pelini to apologize to the entire fan base — it still can’t touch the ongoing ineptitude of Ohio State’s offense after its second miserable flop of the season in a 10-7 loss to Michigan State that only missed being a shutout by about 17 seconds. The Buckeyes still look like their usual selves on defense, but the prospect of Joe Bauserman and Braxton Miller staring down a Pelini-coached defense on the road is either a tragedy or comedy in the making, and neither one is going to end well for Ohio State.

MIAMI at VIRGINIA TECH (-7½) • 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC or ESPN.
There’s a strong temptation to punish Virginia Tech for betraying its preseason expectations so spectacularly last week in its first real game against Clemson — and at home, no less — but when the opponent has already dropped games to both Kansas State and Maryland, it hardly seems poised to accept any rewards. The Hokies are still solid on defense (they lead the ACC and rank in the top 10 nationally in every major defensive category), and still very much in the thick of the race in the Coastal Division. More importantly, Miami still can’t stop the run and just lost its best interior lineman for the year.

TEXAS A&M (-9½) at TEXAS TECH • 7 p.m. ET, CBS.
Texas Tech is 4-0, leads the most offensive-oriented conference in the nation in scoring and gets to host a deflated defense that’s been shredded through the air in back-to-back heartbreakers. None of that changes the fact that Texas A&M should be the better team — especially when it comes to pounding Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray against the Raiders’ 117th-ranked run defense — but don’t say you weren’t warned, Aggies, if your most promising season in more than a decade starts to spiral out of control.

MISSOURI (-3½) at KANSAS STATE • 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC.
Kansas State’s upset wins over Miami and Baylor the last two weeks are two of the best back-to-back wins by any team this season, but there still seems to be a general feeling — see the point spread here — that the Wildcats’ 4-0 start is something of a mirage waiting to be exposed. (Hence, a point spread that makes them home underdogs to a conference peer that’s lost two of its last three.) If so, this is a good place to find out: K-State has dropped six straight to Missouri, the last five by double digits. Both of Mizzou’s losses have come on tough road trips, first to Arizona State (an overtime loss) and then to No. 1 Oklahoma (a game the Tigers led early, 14-3); by comparison, Manhattan should feel like a petting zoo. As much as this amounts to another “statement game” for the Wildcats’ staying power in the polls, Missouri needs to make a statement, too, namely: “We’re not bound for a losing record while simultaneously hoping for an invite from the SEC.”

MICHIGAN (-7½) at NORTHWESTERN • 7 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network.
The intrigue in Evanston is over what happens when Northwestern has the ball, and both teams get a little closer to answering their most pressing questions: a) How healthy is Wildcat quarterback Dan Persa? and b) How sustainable is Michigan’s vast improvement on defense against competent Big Ten offenses? But regardless of what Persa’s able to accomplish against the Wolverine D, the real question for Northwestern is: How in the world is the defense going to contain Denard Robinson? In consecutive losses, the Wildcats have yielded 381 yards to Army, then 391 yards passing to Illinois, leaving them as the worst total defense in the Big Ten this side of Minnesota. Even another big game by Persa — he had four touchdown passes in last week’s loss in Champaign — may not be enough to break the skid.

AIR FORCE at NOTRE DAME (-14) • 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC.
No Irish fan needs to be reminded how severely the defense was gashed by the triple option in consecutive losses to Navy in 2009 and 2010, and Air Force is every bit the same challenge: The Falcons are averaging 365 yards on the ground through the first four games, third-best in the nation. For its part, Notre Dame has been vastly improved against the run, but if it doesn’t put up some points of its own on offense, it’s only a turnover or two away from another very sobering return to the ‘L’ column.

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Matt Hinton is on Facebook and Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.

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